Hamas’ Flawed Strategy

Don't Expect an Easy Ending

The Wall Street Journal had a good article on June 11 about Hamas’ strategy for the war in Gaza. (See: “Gaza Chief’s Brutal Calculation: Civilian Bloodshed Will Help Hamas”) I think this strategy, while it may have worked in the past, is doomed to fail.

Hamas’ strategy is primarily focused on some characteristics of Israel and the Western world:

(1)     Hamas correctly sees that Israel and the West are far more powerful than the Palestinians in terms of wealth, military power, and influence.

(2)     Ironically, Hamas’ strategy assumes that Israel and the West are magnanimous. Because the West is generous, charitable, forgiving, and principled, it will eventually give full rights and protections to those within its jurisdiction.

(3)     Hamas believes that the deaths of innocent Palestinian civilians, and especially babies, by the Israeli Defense Forces— “necessary sacrifices” according to Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar—will facilitate this process.

Something similar happened in America during the Civil Rights movement in the 1950s and 1960s. Blacks in America protested non-violently for equal treatment. Eventually, the magnanimous people in this country realized that treating black people unjustly showed them to be hypocrites. To be a good, moral person, you must treat others properly. The mistreatment of others can continue only if that mistreatment is believed to serve some purpose. If some group, such as African Americans, is non-violently asking for the same rights that you yourself claim, you cannot justify their mistreatment and therefore you must extend to them the same rights. To do otherwise would be inconsistent.

Essentially, this is Hamas’ strategy. But it is critically flawed.

Such a process can happen only if the magnanimous people see how they are being inconsistent. If the oppressed person is a violent threat, the equation changes and, from the perspective of the Israelis, October 7 forever changed the equation. Instead of thinking that the Israelis and Hamas-controlled Palestinians can live peacefully side by side and the weaker Palestinians deserve full rights, the Israelis now have reason to believe that the Hamas-controlled Palestinians will kill them today, tomorrow, or the next day. It’s not a question of if; it’s a question of when.

Feelings of charity, compassion, and forgiveness have understandably been supplanted with fear, hatred, and the desire for self-protection. Given that perspective, Israel will have difficulty ending a war that has failed to eradicate a clear and present mortal threat. Likewise, Hamas, given its strongly expressed feelings toward Israel, will not easily change its “dead babies” strategy, which means that this war may continue for some time.